【英文】美国战略和预算评估中心报告：侦查中国实施威慑：印太地区态势感知能力的创新、过程和组织（63页）

英文研究报告 2021年08月06日 05:02 管理员

First introduced by CSBA in April 2020, the Deterrence by Detection concept proposed establishing a network of existing non-stealthy long-endurance UAS to maintain real-time, persistent situational awareness in key geographic areas in the Western Pacific and Eastern Europe. In the Western Pacific, the Deterrence by Detection concept envisions establishing a network of UAS to increase coverage of the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, South China Sea, and coastal areas of mainland China (Figure 1). In the Taiwan Strait, UAS would monitor the approaches to Taiwan, provide periodic surveillance of China’s coastline, and surveil the waters farther to the east. Nearby in the East China Sea, UAS would continuously monitor the approaches to the Senkaku Islands. Coverage of the South China Sea would remain periodic and include broad coverage of an area of roughly 260,000 nm2 as well as focused coverage of the Spratly Islands, which stand at the center of multiple territorial claims.

CSBA analysis showed that implementing Deterrence by Detection would require 46 airframes in the Western Pacific assigned to key geographic areas. The UAS would come from U.S., allied, and partner country inventories and operate in national groups and potentially as part of a coalition network. Western Pacific operations would require allocating additional medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAS from existing inventories to provide persistent presence over the localized flashpoints of the Taiwan Strait, Spratly Islands, and Senkaku Islands. The Western Pacific’s ocean environs also would demand allocating additional maritime-optimized high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) UAS from existing inventories. The annual operating cost for the 46 UASs would total approximately $700 million based on Congressional Budget Office figures.7 Since the aircraft would come from the existing inventory, not from new purchases, the operating cost represents money the United States and its allies would spend anyway to keep the aircraft flying. Split among the United States and its many allies and partners in the Western Pacific, the estimated cost per country should remain affordable relative to the expected security gains.