【英文】2021年全球投资者对投资中国的态度调查报告（42页）

英文研究报告 2021年10月19日 07:49 管理员

In 2020, China was the only major economy to expand—achieving 2.3% real GDP growth. And while many countries still struggle to vaccinate citizens quickly enough to loosen restrictions and return to normal economic activity, The Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecasts show that China’s GDP returned to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 with a prediction to expand by 8% for the full year.% Aligning with that outlook, the majority (60%) of our institutional-investor respondents this year have better expectations of economic conditions in China versus global conditions over the next 12 months. But that is down from just under three-quarters who felt so in 2019. Against the headwinds of 2020, that minor slip actually looks like strong optimism.A similar number expect global economic conditions over the next 12 months to be better than current conditions, which is down slightly from 2019. World GDP in 2020 slumped by 3.8%, but the market expects a recovery of about 6% growth in 2021. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts the US to be the developed market with the best recovery, hitting 6% GDP growth in 2021 after contracting by 3.5% in 2020. Meanwhile, forecasts for Europe and ASEAN also anticipate a bounce-back from -6.8% to 4.6% in Europe and from -4.1% to 4.2% for ASEAN.

A strengthened focus on technology has also intensi!ied US-China trade tensions. According to Christophe Donay, head of strategy and asset allocation at Pictet, a Swiss bank and !inancial services company: “What is behind the tension is philosophy. We have the US, the technological leader since the second world war, and thanks to this, they have world economic leadership and !inancial-world leadership. Now China is putting the US’s leadership of technology at risk and because of that, its world leadership. It's not just Trump versus China, the tensions are still there, if not stronger than before.” The scene is set for increasing polarisation as the US president, Joe Biden, maintains his predecessor’s focus on battling China for technological, and therefore economic, world leadership, but with a new strategy of bolstering his position with allies’ support. For China, it has led to a strategy of “dual circulation", emphasising security and technological self-su"iciency through indigenous innovation.