【英文】IMF世界经济展望报告：下调今年全球经济增长预期至5.9%（172页）

英文研究报告 2021年10月20日 08:06 管理员

2022 and some only in 2023. However, it seems likely that vaccinations alone will not be able to completely stamp out SARS-CoV-2 transmission, even though they remain effective against the most adverse health effects of the pandemic (severe illness and death). As a result, hospitalizations and deaths are expected to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022 through a combination of improved access to vaccines and therapies, combined with more highly targeted and effective precautions. Some countries may be able to reduce adverse public health outcomes sooner than others, depending on country-specific circumstances. The projections are tempered by the possibility of renewed outbreaks, particularly before vaccines become widely available. So long as the enormous differences in vaccine access persist, the inequalities in health and economic outcomes will increase, driving further divergences across two blocs of countries: those that can look forward to further normalization later this year (almost all advanced economies); and those that will struggle with the adverse health and economic impacts from resurgent infections.

Policy support has helped create the conditions for a handoff to private demand in the recovery. Where deployed, extensive fiscal measures have provided insurance to households and firms, enabling many to replenish or build up their savings, and creating the conditions for private demand to propel the recovery, particularly in 2022 when the advanced economy group is projected to shift its fiscal stance toward tightening. Indeed, household savings accumulated in excess of the pre-pandemic trend shows a positive relationship vis-à-vis the extent of fiscal support. • Moreover, there are signs that historically low-saving countries have tended to accumulate greater savings in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, putting their finances on firmer footing going forward. The forecast assumes a smooth handoff from extraordinary policy support to private activity-led growth, with some of the additional savings buildup retained in places where previous saving rates were low. Demand is assumed to pick up as vaccination coverage rises— given that vaccines seem to protect against severe illness. The speed with which this happens—and excess savings are drawn down—will influence the pace of the recovery and inflationary pressures (if supply is unable to adjust quickly enough).