【英文】IMF世界经济展望报告：下调今年全球经济增长预期至5.9%（172页）

2022 and some only in 2023. However, it seems  likely that vaccinations alone will not be able to  completely stamp out SARS-CoV-2 transmission,  even though they remain effective against the most  adverse health effects of the pandemic (severe illness  and death). As a result, hospitalizations and deaths  are expected to be brought to low levels everywhere  by the end of 2022 through a combination of  improved access to vaccines and therapies, combined  with more highly targeted and effective precautions.  Some countries may be able to reduce adverse public  health outcomes sooner than others, depending on  country-specific circumstances. The projections are  tempered by the possibility of renewed outbreaks,  particularly before vaccines become widely available. So long as the enormous differences in vaccine access  persist, the inequalities in health and economic outcomes will increase, driving further divergences across  two blocs of countries: those that can look forward  to further normalization later this year (almost all  advanced economies); and those that will struggle  with the adverse health and economic impacts from  resurgent infections.

Policy support has helped create the conditions for  a handoff to private demand in the recovery. Where  deployed, extensive fiscal measures have provided  insurance to households and firms, enabling many to  replenish or build up their savings, and creating the  conditions for private demand to propel the recovery,  particularly in 2022 when the advanced economy  group is projected to shift its fiscal stance toward  tightening. Indeed, household savings accumulated  in excess of the pre-pandemic trend shows a positive  relationship vis-à-vis the extent of fiscal support. • Moreover, there are signs that historically low-saving  countries have tended to accumulate greater savings in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, putting  their finances on firmer footing going forward. The  forecast assumes a smooth handoff from extraordinary  policy support to private activity-led growth, with  some of the additional savings buildup retained in  places where previous saving rates were low. Demand  is assumed to pick up as vaccination coverage rises— given that vaccines seem to protect against severe illness. The speed with which this happens—and excess  savings are drawn down—will influence the pace of  the recovery and inflationary pressures (if supply is  unable to adjust quickly enough).