【英文】兰德报告：中俄合作决定因素、未来轨迹、对美国的影响（324页）

英文研究报告 2021年10月29日 07:48 管理员

To measure military capacity, we identified a set of key military capabilities that are believed to be important in contemporary combat. These include forces and units associated with global power projection (e.g., major surface combatants and fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft) and anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) (e.g., strategic surface-to-air missile [SAM] systems). We also considered ground combat capabilities (e.g., tanks and infantry fighting vehicles), but there are less reliable data for these systems, and including them did not appear to shift the balance of military capabilities. To measure capabilities over time, we used the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS’s) Military Balance to count the number of modern systems or units available to the United States, China, and Russia in five-year increments (in 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017). We also included strategic nuclear forces in our measurement of military capacity (see Appendix A).

We use these capability counts in two ways. First, we provide radial diagrams in Chapters Three and Four that show changes in the countries’ military capabilities over time (see Figures 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, and 4.2). Second, we use the capability counts to generate a total index of military capabilities. To calculate this index, we counted the proportion of systems or units that each country possessed in the different capability categories, and then averaged across the capability categories (see Figure 1.3). For example, by our count, the United States in 1997 possessed 48 percent of key capabilities, Russia had 42 percent, and China had 9.5 percent. In 2017, the United States also possessed 48 percent, while Russia had 27 percent and China had 25 percent. There are limitations to this measure, especially that it cannot account for improvements in doctrine, training, and other qualitative factors and that it cannot account for changes in the quality of systems that we identify as modern (for example, Russia upgrading Tochka tactical missiles to the more capable Iskander missiles, which significantly improved Russia’s capability for long-range strikes). Nevertheless, this measure can be useful to judge major changes in modern military capabilities.