【英文】巴克莱报告：抄底中国科技行业（169页）

英文研究报告 2021年11月17日 07:00 管理员

We believe BABA offers one of the most compelling valuations not just among Chinese ADRs but global peers under Barclays’ coverage. With GMV of over $1tn, 2x Amazon’s, and with net cash balance of over $51bn and investment portfolio worth ~$75bn, the current BABA’s enterprise value (which does not include investment portfolio in our calculation) of ~$350-400bn seems to significantly undervalue its businesses. Plus, the market appears to be giving almost no value to both its cloud business (#1 in China and #3 in the world with annual revenue of $12bn this year, in our estimates) and to its stake (33%) in Ant.  Despite some market share loss to competitors in recent years, BABA retains a dominant position in the China's ecommerce market, which still provides meaningful growth potential at the current 25-30% penetration rate.

In addition to its cloud infrastructure business, the company is making significant inroads in the enterprise cloud SaaS market with DingDing, BABA’s enterprise collaboration offering, boasting over 500mn users at almost 20mn enterprises and schools.  Outside of China, BABA has made some good progress in recent years with ecommerce operations in Southeast Asia (Lazada), Turkey and Eastern European (Trendyol). We believe BABA is poised to expand its efforts to further push its ecommerce business, as well as its logistics and cloud businesses beyond China’s borders. BABA can leverage its technological and operational expertise to tap into the significant growth opportunity of the international markets. Our price target is $275, based on 15x FY23E nominal core commerce EBITA plus its cash and investment with its cloud business and Ant stake being free options.