【英文】新美国安全中心报告：遏制危机，对中国实施强制性经济治国方略的战略构想（28页）

英文研究报告 2021年12月28日 06:11 管理员

To gain advantage in economic and technological competition, the United States and the PRC have traded blows in coercive economic measures, i.e., restrictions on trade, investment, and fnancial transactions intended to infict costs on one another and induce policy change.1 As both countries possess signifcant leverage in market power, fnancial fows, and supply chains, they have employed measures that are increasingly cross-domain, combining the economic, fnancial, and diplomatic spheres. When these countries impose coercive measures against one another, other states may be impacted by a cycle of economic coercion and retaliation, which complicates the geoeconomic calculus of all actors. Firms may be forced to choose between investing in the Chinese market or investing elsewhere and building redundancy in supply chains. Overall, these and related factors contributed to reduced bilateral foreign direct investment in 2020.

Amid the increasing number of coercive economic measures imposed in recent years, the 2020 “Phase One” trade deal between the United States and China attempted a brief respite from economic hostilities. It promised expanded Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and services to improve the U.S. trade balance with China and structural changes that would improve access for American frms that want to operate in the Chinese market. Nevertheless, China’s commitment to fully implement its obligations remains uncertain, and the United States and China likely will continue to utilize both threatened and actual coercive economic measures over time.3 Indeed, since the trade deal was signed in January 2020, there has been a series of coercive economic measures between the two countries. Signifcant actions include targeted multilateral sanctions in reaction to China’s treatment of the Uyghurs and signifcant Chinese counter sanctions, as well as the U.S. passage of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act and related sanctions in August 2020 in response to China’s imposition of the National Security Law in Hong Kong.