【英文】中美竞争最高危机的新十年：如何在2020年代取得胜利（63页）

英文研究报告 2022年01月04日 06:11 管理员

To begin with, consider the trajectory of key economic activity indicators since 1985. We use the production of electricity, cement, sulfuric acid; the consumption of diesel fuel and steel; and the volume of rail freight, because they are likely more indicative of actual happenings in the economy than the heavily massaged official GDP numbers. This set of indicators is an expanded version of the “Li Keqiang Index” that the nowpremier used to track economic activity when he was Party secretary in Liaoning Province in the mid-2000s.11 Readers should note that for cement and sulfuric acid, production offers a useful proxy for demand, as these bulk commodities are primarily produced for domestic consumption, and data are more accessible and reliable for dozens or hundreds of major producers than they are for potentially hundreds of thousands of consumers spread across China’s sprawling economy. During Phase 1 (1985–early 2000s), the indicators all increased, with electricity, cement, diesel fuel, and sulfuric acid most closely tracking the “official” GDP number.

Rail cargo volumes grew, albeit on a flatter trajectory, as did steel (Figure 5). Phase 2 (early 2000s–early 2010s) saw demand and production rise significantly across the board, with electricity, diesel fuel, steel, cement, and sulfuric acid all accelerating. Phase 3 (2013–2016) marked a transitional phase in which many key building-block commodities took a growth breather in a fairly synchronized fashion. This started with a demand plateau for diesel fuel beginning in 2012, a near-term peak in steel use in 2013, and a potentially more structural peak in cement production in 2014—the high-water mark to date for that material. Rail freight followed with down years in 2015 and 2016. Divergences between production and consumption of vital input materials and the uncannily smooth continued rise of official GDP numbers during the mid-2010s increase our confidence that the tangible metrics we are using provide a more “honest” assessment of actual economic activity.