【英文】中美竞争最高危机的新十年：如何在2020年代取得胜利（63页）

To begin with, consider the trajectory of key economic activity indicators since 1985.  We use the production of electricity, cement, sulfuric acid; the consumption of diesel  fuel and steel; and the volume of rail freight, because they are likely more indicative of  actual happenings in the economy than the heavily massaged official GDP numbers.  This set of indicators is an expanded version of the “Li Keqiang Index” that the nowpremier used to track economic activity when he was Party secretary in Liaoning  Province in the mid-2000s.11 Readers should note that for cement and sulfuric acid,  production offers a useful proxy for demand, as these bulk commodities are primarily  produced for domestic consumption, and  data are more accessible and reliable for  dozens or hundreds of major producers  than they are for potentially hundreds of  thousands of consumers spread across  China’s sprawling economy. During Phase 1 (1985–early 2000s), the  indicators all increased, with electricity,  cement, diesel fuel, and sulfuric acid  most closely tracking the “official” GDP  number. 

Rail cargo volumes grew, albeit  on a flatter trajectory, as did steel (Figure  5). Phase 2 (early 2000s–early 2010s) saw  demand and production rise significantly  across the board, with electricity, diesel  fuel, steel, cement, and sulfuric acid all  accelerating. Phase 3 (2013–2016) marked  a transitional phase in which many key  building-block commodities took a growth  breather in a fairly synchronized fashion.  This started with a demand plateau for  diesel fuel beginning in 2012, a near-term peak in steel use in 2013, and a potentially  more structural peak in cement production in 2014—the high-water mark to date for  that material. Rail freight followed with down years in 2015 and 2016. Divergences  between production and consumption of vital input materials and the uncannily  smooth continued rise of official GDP numbers during the mid-2010s increase  our confidence that the tangible metrics we are using provide a more “honest”  assessment of actual economic activity.