【英文】世界经济论坛报告：2022年全球风险报告（117页）

英文研究报告 2022年01月17日 07:46 管理员

Even in the best-case scenario of aggressive digital threat defences, there will be signifcant increases in the cost of operations for all stakeholders. This could be particularly challenging for small- or medium-sized businesses that might spend 4% or more of their operational budget on security, compared to larger organizations that might spend closer to 1–2%.38 Indeed, amid the rising frequency and severity of ransomware claims, cyber insurance pricing in the United States rose by 96% in the third quarter of 2021, marking the most signifcant increase since 2015 and a 204% year over-year increase.39 Respondents to the GRPS indicate a long-term concern with these developments, with “adverse tech advances” appearing as a top-10 risk over a 5-to-10-year horizon.

Cyberthreats also continue to drive states apart, with governments following increasingly unilateral paths to control risks. As attacks become more severe and broadly impactful, already-sharp tensions between governments impacted by cybercrime and governments complicit in their commission will rise as cybersecurity becomes another wedge for divergence, rather than cooperation, among nation states.40 Particularly in an era of rising tensions between superpowers, cyberattacks are another battlefront in which escalation is a key risk (see Chapter 1).41 If cyberthreats continue without mitigation, governments will continue to retaliate against perpetrators (actual or perceived), leading to open cyberwarfare, further disruption for societies and loss of trust in governments’ ability to act as digital stewards.