【英文】瑞信报告：2022年中国投资策略展望：尘埃落定后会是更好的一年（80页）

英文研究报告 2022年02月14日 06:54 管理员

China’s economy has exhibited an uneven normalisation path from the pandemic. Following a V-shaped recovery in 2020, China’s growth lost momentum since 3Q21 due to resurging COVID, summer flooding, unexpected power cuts and unprecedented property tightening. We expect to see moderate recovery in 2H22, after a still tough 1H22. We expect China to speed up the fiscal expenditure and carry out constructive monetary policy support. For strategies that will have a profound impact on China’s long-term development, such as common prosperity and carbon neutrality, we expect an adjustment in the pace of implementation. Our on-the-ground checks for 2022 outlook The CS CQi team conducted industry and consumer surveys to better understand on-the ground views for the economic and business outlook for the year.

According to the surveys, property sales managers confirmed moderate easing as evidenced by the slight decline of mortgage rates and a shortened mortgage-processing time. Material producers are still cautious on demand outlook and expect high power tariffs may last longer than earlier expected. Private SME manufacturers are cautious about the year while service providers are more optimistic. Expect a better year after correction Major China and Hong Kong equity indices experienced remarkable corrections in 2021 and underperformed other major global indices, dragged by a weakening economy, intensified regulatory tightening, resurging COVID cases and high PPI inflation. 2021 was also a year of dramatic sector rotation.