【英文】彼得森经济研究所报告：美国通胀前景谨慎乐观的理由（21页）

英文研究报告 2022年04月01日 07:09 管理员

Figure 3 provides some additional perspective on how changes in consumer spending patterns and supply-chain disruptions have likely contributed to the increase in inflation. Since the pandemic began, real consumer spending on goods has been remarkably robust (the blue line in figure 3). In contrast, real outlays on services initially fell well below their pre-COVID-19 trend and remain weak (red line). Presumably, these changes in the level and composition of household demand reflect, among other things, a continued reluctance to travel, eat out, and engage in other forms of activity that involve close proximity to other people, combined with fiscal actions that have supported disposable income and overall spending. Even if supply conditions had remained normal, these changing spending patterns would have increased capacity utilization rates in goods-producing industries, putting upward pressure on prices in this sector.

But the ability of firms to meet the robust demand for goods has been simultaneously hampered by global supply-chain pressures (yellow line).4 The net result of these forces is that the relative price of goods departed from its downward secular trend in 2021 and rose appreciably (green line). This increase raised the aggregate price level, because prices for goods are generally much less “sticky” than prices for services.A similar logic applies to prices of goods other than motor vehicles and energy, particularly if the composition of total spending gradually moves back toward its pre-COVID-19 norm. In fact, outlays on some items might even slump for a time as a result of payback effects, given how much the overall stock of consumer durable goods increased over the past two years.6 Although the events in Ukraine mean that higher energy prices are likely to boost overall inflation again in 2022, the sector’s contribution should drop to zero once oil prices level out.