【英文】瑞信报告：上海封城及其连锁效应：量化对消费行业的影响（69页）

英文研究报告 2022年05月11日 07:01 管理员

Including Shanghai, at least 28 large and medium-sized cities in China have announced lockdown measures since late March, which contributed to ~16.0% of national total retail sales in China last year. Our on-the-ground observation in Shanghai found foot traffic of offline retail severely dropped since mid-March. Though easing arrangements by stages in Shanghai have been announced, the city’s offline activities remain largely muted, while e-commerce and food delivery are still struggling with logistic and capability challenges. We believe the control measures imposed have put both online and offline consumption on a downward spiral, and we see the consumer sector as being at major risk if the prolonged pandemic and further tightening continue across China. At the same time, we note the proactive stance taken by the government to shoot for consumption recovery via multiple stimulus measures. CQi survey confirms… The control measures have resulted in a negative outlook and sentiment across the board, including both employers and households.

Findings from a CQi survey supports our concerns, namely a gloomy employment outlook, a deteriorating household income outlook and consumption sentiment. Service firms have weak hiring plans, reflecting soft household consumption in 2Q22. Consumers are facing a double-dip in both disposable income and income expectation, which undermines their willingness to spend money. Hit almost everywhere Our channel check demonstrates incremental impacts in April are of concern, following visible downward trends in March. As of mid-April, sectors with expanded decline from last month include catering, sportswear, aesthetics, as well as certain condiment and home appliance – catering sector’s SSS recovery at approximately 60-80% in March 2022, which further lowered in April; sportswear’s demand growth slowed down significantly in the second half of March, with some brands experiencing negative growth into April; while aesthetics companies’ revenue in March and 1H of April is largely erased. For home appliance, we found monthly sales decline improved in the second week of April from March, with refrigerator outperforming airconditioners and washing machines.