【英文】国际危机组织报告：风险竞争：加强美中危机管理（41页）

英文研究报告 2022年06月03日 08:59 管理员

Rising tensions between the U.S. and China, combined with larger military deployments by both powers in the Asia Pacific, have increased the risk of a crisis sparked by miscalculation or an unintended collision in the air or at sea. Existing crisis management mechanisms have contributed to stability in the relationship, but in the face of growing competition, heightened by the war in Ukraine, the two sides must identify ways to bolster them, even if at the margins. In some cases, the most promising option may be to focus on better implementing existing mechanisms – including hotlines to communicate during crises and maritime “rules of the road” to prevent incidents. But there is also room for greater ambition, particularly when it comes to defence dialogues. Resuming and expanding these dialogues, possibly to include joint crisis simulations, would allow Beijing and Washington to signal their intentions more clearly and, down the line, might advance mutual understanding of possible escalation triggers that can help both sides manage the associated risks more effectively.

The strategic competition between the U.S. and China is increasingly framed by both sides as a rivalry between their respective domestic political systems. On one hand, Washington presents itself as waging a battle for democracy and against autocracy, spurred among other things by President Joseph Biden’s desire to champion values that his predecessor, Donald Trump, treated with visible contempt. On the other hand, Beijing casts itself as the defender of China’s Communist Party-led system, which it says represents a different form of democracy that has delivered huge benefits for the Chinese people. The competition has intensified amid the conflict in Ukraine, where Beijing’s backing of Moscow and Washington’s support for Kyiv have reinforced the mutual sense that the two countries are engaged in a globe-spanning struggle. As they jockey for position, both sides put forward narratives that raise the stakes of their sparring, reduce the space for compromise and make it more difficult to limit the risk of confrontation.