【英文】美国2022-2032十年经济预算和规划报告（151页）

英文研究报告 2022年06月14日 07:56 管理员

In CBO’s projections, outlays total $5.8 trillion, or 24 percent of GDP, in 2022. (Tose outlays are adjusted to exclude the efects of timing shifts.) As a percentage of GDP, they dip below that level for a few years and then rise. In 2032, outlays again total 24 percent of GDP. Since 1946, outlays have reached or exceeded that percentage of GDP only three times—in 2009, 2020, and 2021 (all of which were during a recession or the coronavirus pandemic). Revenues total $4.8 trillion, or 20 percent of GDP, in 2022—their highest level relative to the size of the economy in more than two decades. Tey fall as a percentage of GDP over the next few years before rising again in 2026 and 2027, and then they stabilize.During the past year, prices of many goods and services increased sharply, and the unemployment rate fell. In CBO’s projections, over the next year, economic growth stays above its average of the past two decades, and unemployment remains low.

Elevated infation initially persists as strong demand for products and labor continues, but it gradually subsides as supply disruptions dissipate, energy prices decline, and less accommodative monetary policy takes hold.As federal spending in response to the coronavirus pandemic wanes and the economic expansion continues, the budget defcit in 2022 is expected to shrink substantially from the amounts recorded in 2020 and 2021 (when defcits, relative to the size of the economy, were larger than at any time since World War II). Nevertheless, under the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending will generally remain unchanged in future years, federal defcits are set to remain large by historical standards and to generally increase throughout the next decade, the Congressional Budget Ofce projects (see Figure 1-1). Federal debt measured relative to the size of the economy is projected to dip over the next two years and then to rise each year through 2032.