【英文】汉密尔顿指数报告：评估国家在先进产业竞争中的表现（60页）

英文研究报告 2022年06月27日 13:19 管理员

Nations are in a fierce win-lose global competition for market share in advanced, traded-sector technology industries, because winning enables economic and national security. That is especially true for allied nations, because China’s gain comes at their loss and vice versa. Winning—not only the competition for innovation leadership but also for production capacity— will boost wages, international competitiveness, and economic and national security. When it comes to the U.S. national interest, innovation-based production is key. The United States has a long history of pioneering innovations only to see their production captured by other nations, including China, which reduces growth, weakens the terms of trade (creating a higher trade balance and/or a weaker dollar), and degrades the national security industrial base.

The Hamilton Center on Industrial Strategy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) examined national changes in global shares of output in seven industry sectors that the Center has aggregated into the Hamilton Index of Advanced-Technology Performance: pharmaceuticals; medicinal, chemical, and botanical products; electrical equipment; machinery and equipment; motor vehicle equipment; other transport equipment; computer, electronic, and optical products; and information technology and information services. This report covers threeyears—1995, 2006, and 2018—for 10 countries and regions: the United States, Canada, Mexico, Germany, the EU-28 minus Germany, China, India, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

The data show U.S. performance is weak and declining, both in absolute market share and relative to the size-adjusted global average (a ratio known as a location quotient). It is strongest in IT and other information services (software and Internet companies) and other transportation equipment (principally aerospace). In contrast, U.S. global market share in electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, and motor vehicles is quite low and falling. Significant growth in the IT and other information services sector, both globally and especially in the United States, is why the overall decline in U.S. global market share of advanced industries was limited to 1.5 percentage points from 1995 to 2018.