【英文】花旗全球财富投资2022年中期展望（71页）

英文研究报告 2022年08月18日 06:47 管理员

In response to the deep but short-lived economic effects of the pandemic, fiscal and monetary policymakers applied unprecedented stimulus. Targeted financial support, say, for the airline and hospitality industry and its workers would not have generated the unsustainable demand boom that the massive support for nearly all consumers did. Now, in fighting pandemic-impacted shortages – mismatches in supply or demand that need to be resolved at a sectoral level – policymakers are applying macro-level economic restraints – FIGURE 3. History suggests that monetary policy has never resolved supply shocks. The Fed regulates demand, but does not produce goods and services. The demand support provided to economies in 2020-2021 is waning fast. In the first quarter of 2022, US federal spending fell 33%. A 250-basis point rise in mortgage rates is just one example of the Fed’s blunt force to slow the housing sector – FIGURE 4. Consumer spending is likewise decelerating over the course of the first quarter.

In time, we expect these actions to slow employment and inflation - FIGURE 5. The Fed was previously unmoved by the argument that monetary easing was excessive in the boom year of 2021. But the central bank’s views have changed markedly in 2022. As the Fed begins a period of more rapid monetary tightening, we recall Chairman Powell’s words of last August: “The main influence of monetary policy on inflation can come after a lag of a year or more. If a central bank tightens policy in response to factors that turn out to be temporary, the main policy effects are likely to arrive after the need has passed.” At some point – ideally during 2022 – we would hope the Fed will recognize the future impact of its rate hikes and reduced lending (“quantitative tightening”). If recognized early enough, this would preserve the chance of continued expansion and perhaps not require a policy reversal from the Fed. Conversely, the US and global economy are unlikely to sustain growth through another year if the Fed continues with its projected rapid monetary tightening deep into 2023. The Fed has not managed to end recessions quickly once underway.