【英文】花旗全球财富投资2022年中期展望（71页）

In response to the deep but short-lived economic  effects of the pandemic, fiscal and monetary  policymakers applied unprecedented stimulus.  Targeted financial support, say, for the airline and  hospitality industry and its workers would not  have generated the unsustainable demand boom  that the massive support for nearly all consumers  did. Now, in fighting pandemic-impacted  shortages – mismatches in supply or demand  that need to be resolved at a sectoral level –  policymakers are applying macro-level economic  restraints – FIGURE 3. History suggests that monetary policy has  never resolved supply shocks. The Fed regulates  demand, but does not produce goods and  services. The demand support provided to  economies in 2020-2021 is waning fast. In the first  quarter of 2022, US federal spending fell 33%.  A 250-basis point rise in mortgage rates is just  one example of the Fed’s blunt force to slow the  housing sector – FIGURE 4. Consumer spending is  likewise decelerating over the course of the first quarter. 

In time, we expect these actions to slow  employment and inflation - FIGURE 5. The Fed was previously unmoved by the argument  that monetary easing was excessive in the boom  year of 2021. But the central bank’s views have  changed markedly in 2022. As the Fed begins a  period of more rapid monetary tightening, we  recall Chairman Powell’s words of last August: “The  main influence of monetary policy on inflation can  come after a lag of a year or more. If a central  bank tightens policy in response to factors that  turn out to be temporary, the main policy effects  are likely to arrive after the need has passed.”  At some point – ideally during 2022 – we would  hope the Fed will recognize the future impact of  its rate hikes and reduced lending (“quantitative  tightening”). If recognized early enough, this would  preserve the chance of continued expansion and  perhaps not require a policy reversal from the Fed.  Conversely, the US and global economy are unlikely  to sustain growth through another year if the  Fed continues with its projected rapid monetary  tightening deep into 2023. The Fed has not managed to end recessions quickly  once underway.