【英文】海牙战略研究中心报告：调查结果！半导体关键原材料供应面临的威胁（23页）

英文研究报告 2022年10月27日 08:41 管理员

The supply of semiconductors and end-products to the EU is likely to be strongly, negatively impacted by CRM supply disruptions, already in the next fve but even more so in the next ten years. A demand-induced shortage due to the energy transition, a CRM export embargo by China, and a People’s Liberation Army naval blockade/invasion of Taiwan are deemed the top risks in the next ten years. It is likely that one or more risks materialises before 2032 and possibly even before 2027, as fve risks were awarded a higher than 50% probability to materialise in the next fve years and seven in the next ten years. Out of the ten risks, seven are expected to have a “high impact”3 and three to have a “very high impact” (see Figure 1). If even just one of these risks materialises, the respondents expect that this will have either a “high impact” or “very high impact” on the supply of semiconductors and end-products to the EU and, hence, the bloc’s overall economic security.A demand-induced CRM shortage due to the energy transition is the threat that is deemed most likely to materialise in both the next fve and ten years.

A demand-induced shortage due to the energy transition is a structural, “high impact” challenge facing the CRM landscape. Five out of six CRM assessed in this report have important functions in both semiconductor production and the transition to green energy, meaning the energy transition will put pressure on their availability for semiconductor production. The respondents fear that CRM embargoes enacted by China and Russia will aggravate shortages (see Figure 2), similarly to the imposition of a natural gas and neon gas (partial-)embargo by Russia in 2022. As prices rise due to increased demand, the “more likely than not” risk of a palladium export embargo by Russia in both the next fve and ten years, and the “more likely than not/likely” risk of a CRM embargo by China in the next ten years, are expected to aggravate disruptions in the supply of semiconductors and end-products to the European Union. The respondents with economic security expertise ranked a CRM embargo by China as the highest impact threat out of all the risks appreciated, whereas China, Japan, East Asia, and international security experts maintained that a Chinese CRM embargo is only a “high impact risk”.