【英文】哈佛报告：绿色氢价值链的未来——工业领域的地缘政治和市场影响（45页）

英文研究报告 2022年10月31日 08:07 管理员

Building and expanding existing literature on both the geopolitics of hydrogen and global value chains, this paper analyzes a country’s potential in future green hydrogen markets, focusing on two segments of its value chain: a) production and b) industrial applications, using three criteria: resource endowment, current industrial production, and economic relatedness. Resource endowment. Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced by splitting water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity. The availability of plentiful renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, together with freshwater availability and enabling infrastructure, is thus critical for producing green hydrogen at scale. Accordingly, these variables have been used by Pfugmann and De Blasio (2020) to assess green hydrogen potentials globally. Industrial production. Existing and mature hydrogen markets increase the potential for green hydrogen adoption because they provide sectoral knowledge and skills, enabling infrastructure, strong networks, and practices that ofer a competitive advantage compared to new market entrants (Lambkin, 1988).

The size of existing hydrogen markets can be measured based on sectoral production fgures and has been used as an indicator of future green hydrogen demand (IRENA, 2022). Economic relatedness. Te global transition to a low-carbon economy will signifcantly impact existing energy value chains and transform the production to consumption lifecycle, dramatically altering stakeholders’ interactions. Since global value chains are not static, this dynamism must be addressed using the concept of economic relatedness. Future green hydrogen demand could diverge from current hydrogen market dynamics; for example, as hard-to-abate sectors decarbonize, economic incentives to relocate industrial green hydrogen applications closer to low-cost green hydrogen production could emerge (IRENA, 2022). Related economic activities would build up transferable skills that can increase the potential for new markets and sectoral economic growth (Hausmann & Hidalgo, 2011; Hausmann et al., 2014; Hidalgo et al., 2018; Hidalgo et al., 2007). For this reason, economic relatedness has been successfully used to predict new economic opportunities and the growth of specifc products or industries at a national or subnational level (Hausmann et al., 2014; Nefe et al., 2011).