【英文】哈佛报告：绿色氢价值链的未来——工业领域的地缘政治和市场影响（45页）

Building and expanding existing literature on both the geopolitics of hydrogen  and global value chains, this paper analyzes a country’s potential in future green  hydrogen markets, focusing on two segments of its value chain: a) production and b)  industrial applications, using three criteria: resource endowment, current industrial  production, and economic relatedness. Resource endowment. Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced by splitting water  molecules into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity. The availability of  plentiful renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, together with freshwater  availability and enabling infrastructure, is thus critical for producing green hydrogen  at scale. Accordingly, these variables have been used by Pfugmann and De Blasio  (2020) to assess green hydrogen potentials globally. Industrial production. Existing and mature hydrogen markets increase the  potential for green hydrogen adoption because they provide sectoral knowledge and  skills, enabling infrastructure, strong networks, and practices that ofer a competitive  advantage compared to new market entrants (Lambkin, 1988). 

The size of existing  hydrogen markets can be measured based on sectoral production fgures and has  been used as an indicator of future green hydrogen demand (IRENA, 2022). Economic relatedness. Te global transition to a low-carbon economy will  signifcantly impact existing energy value chains and transform the production  to consumption lifecycle, dramatically altering stakeholders’ interactions. Since  global value chains are not static, this dynamism must be addressed using the  concept of economic relatedness. Future green hydrogen demand could diverge  from current hydrogen market dynamics; for example, as hard-to-abate sectors  decarbonize, economic incentives to relocate industrial green hydrogen applications  closer to low-cost green hydrogen production could emerge (IRENA, 2022).  Related economic activities would build up transferable skills that can increase the  potential for new markets and sectoral economic growth (Hausmann & Hidalgo,  2011; Hausmann et al., 2014; Hidalgo et al., 2018; Hidalgo et al., 2007). For this  reason, economic relatedness has been successfully used to predict new economic  opportunities and the growth of specifc products or industries at a national or  subnational level (Hausmann et al., 2014; Nefe et al., 2011).