【英文】布鲁金斯学会报告：美国的半导体战略（47页）

英文研究报告 2022年11月22日 06:47 管理员

Spending money alone is not enough to dramatically change the semiconductor industry nor its global manufacturing footprint. China has been funding domestic semiconductor projects at a rate far greater than CHIPS envisions. Yet in the eight years since the launch of China’s effort to boost its semiconductor industry (the so-called “Guideline for the Promotion of the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry”16 and the complementary “Big Fund,” a vehicle for funneling capital to its domestic chip industry), Chinese policy has not delivered a major shift in semiconductor market share, product leadership, or manufacturing footprint. For every successful government investment, there are far more failures, and the Chinese government has detained or is investigating many of the fund managers and recipients of government investment vehicles.17 There is little evidence that the policy attracted substantial foreign talent or capital. In the five years prior to the policy launch, four major foreign manufacturers built greenfield fabs in China; since the launch of the policy, only one major global semiconductor company broke ground on a greenfield fab – at technologies three generations behind the leading edge.

Despite major investments, the share of chips supplied by China-based fabs to China-based customers increased only slightly between 2011 and 2021: from roughly 13% to around 17%. China-based semiconductor production still represents much less than 5% of the global total.The manufacturing chain for any given semiconductor is extraordinarily complex and relies on up to 300 different inputs, including raw silicon, commodity chemicals, specialty chemicals, and bulk gases. All of these inputs are processed and analyzed by upwards of 50 different types of processing and testing tools (see below for the taxonomy of the industry value chain). Those tools and materials are sourced from around the world and are typically highly engineered. Further, most equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing, such as lithography and metrology machines, rely on complex supply chains that are also highly optimized and incorporate hundreds of different companies that deliver modules, lasers, mechatronics, control chips, optics, power supplies, and more. Finally, economies of scale and learning efficiencies have consolidated the industry, leading to a high concentration of market share being held by one company at each level of the value chain.