【英文】兰德报告：中国的全球目标-对美国的国防影响（32页）

英文研究报告 2023年01月18日 07:58 管理员

Given China’s expanding overseas interests and Chinese leaders’ ensuing commitments to protect them, the direction of senior leaders since 2004 that the PLA will need to be increasingly capable of operating overseas has been shaping China’s longterm pursuit of overseas basing and access locations. This next section focuses on where PLA bases and access points might be located. Although we do not attempt to definitively predict what China will do with its growing capabilities, we assess China’s longterm priorities for stationing forces abroad and the potential security implications for the United States if China does pursue an array of overseas access and basing locations.Key indicators in the desirability dimension of our framework include the military utility of a potential host nation, its utility for protecting China’s economic interests, and low or acceptable political or other risks to China of basing forces in the country.

The feasibility dimension of our framework highlights the potential host nation regime’s alignment with the People’s Republic of China, China’s influence in the country, and potential obstacles in China’s relationship with the country.Although Chinese officials and authoritative sources do not explicitly lay out new or emerging roles and missions that the PLA may be called on to fulfill overseas, we find some key elements relevant for overseas power projection noted in PLA sources, including the need for maritime replenishment and strategic airlift.3 This literature suggests that Beijing’s pursuit of overseas basing and access is likely to diversify beyond the PLA Navy to encompass other services and a wide array of forces and units. PLA analysts also recognize that sending troops overseas will impose greater requirements on networking the force, building overseas logistics capability, coordinating across civilian and military bureaucracies, increasing the level of personnel training and skills, and determining how best to leverage overseas commercial assets.