【英文】CED报告：债务问题：将超规模美国债务负担降至GDP的70%的路线图（18页）

英文研究报告 2023年03月06日 07:51 管理员

Debt must be serviced, and servicing the debt is already one of the biggest trouble spots in the national budget, with net interest projected to be the fastest-growing part of the budget. US inflation reached 40-year peaks in 2022 in the wake of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, common measures of consumer inflation, surged on dynamics from these two “gray swan” events and the US and global response.

Higher debt—multiples higher than the level of debt preceding 2008’s financial crisis—is already combining with higher interest rates in 2023 to increase interest costs dramatically in a very short time (Figure 6). And when debt continues to increase, the debt service cost will go up and drive interest rates higher due to a weakened credit rating.The Fed’s interest rate tightening cycle is ramping up the pace of increase in debt service. Debt service as a percentage of GDP may climb as high as 6 percent by the end of 2023 consistent with the interest rate on the public debt’s typical tracking of 10-year Treasury yields, which are rising with Fed rate hikes.