【英文】新美国安全中心报告：台海危机升级管理（20页）

英文研究报告 2023年03月24日 07:26 管理员

A more survivable and diverse nuclear arsenal provided Red with coercive options. A larger, more diverse nuclear arsenal not only increased the survivability of China’s second-strike capability but also gave the Red teams the ability to threaten or employ nuclear weapons in a limited fashion. There did not seem to be a diference in the Red teams’ behavior based on whether they had 700 or 1,000-plus nuclear weapons, nor did it change Blue’s views on Red. Neither team in either TTX felt the need to employ a nuclear weapon against an enemy early in a Taiwan confict, because they also had improved conventional capabilities. Both Red teams issued nuclear threats at the start of the war to dissuade the United States from getting involved. One Red team eventually used a low-yield weapon against Guam in response to Blue attacks on China’s mainland. In short, the Red teams felt that they had a secure second-strike capability and were better positioned to brandish nuclear weapons coercively and employ them if necessary.

China does not need to quantitatively match the United States’ nuclear capabilities for it to become a far more signifcant nuclear threat. RECOMMENDATION Continue to explore how China might use nuclear weapons in a war over Taiwan and in other scenarios. Given the uncertainty about China’s nuclear policy and doctrine, it is important to consider how China could use the weapons it is developing. Although China may claim that it does not intend to employ nuclear weapons except in retaliation for a nuclear attack, its policy and doctrine could change. The United States has built up decades of accumulated research on Russian nuclear weapons and doctrine, and it needs to begin a similar research agenda for China. FINDING Red saw little advantage in the employment of nuclear weapons early in a Taiwan confict. Because China’s conventional capabilities are expanding with its nuclear capabilities, the Red teams did not feel pressured to use nuclear weapons early in a confict, although they were willing to brandish them. In their view, nuclear weapons were best used to shift the balance of resolve and compel the United States and Taiwan to capitulate.