【英文】毕马威报告：全球经济展望（50页）

One lingering risk is that rising interest rates and tighter  credit conditions would see further falls in house prices,  particularly in the U.S. and some European economies  where valuations are relatively high. That in turn could  depress consumer confidence and spending again. However, the labor market remains relatively tight across  most countries, and we are not expecting any major rise  in unemployment this year, as outlined in our forecasts for  individual countries in the Appendix. This should provide an  important support for households’ incomes and consumer  spending, even though real incomes are squeezed as a  result of the high levels of inflation. Households’ purchasing  power is expected to recover gradually over the medium  term as wage increases overtake inflation once more from  next year. 

Despite the resilience of the labor market and the improving  inflation conditions, we expect global economic growth to  be relatively modest over the next two years, and to stay  below its long-term average (see Chart 4). Global growth  is expected to be driven by the recovery of the Chinese  economy and a relatively strong growth in some of the  emerging markets, while the Eurozone and U.S. economies  are expected to contribute less to global growth over the  next two years. Risks to our forecasts are broadly skewed to the downside  given the volatility in financial markets. The global economy  has been through a series of significant shocks over the  past three years – the Covid-19 pandemic and the RussiaUkraine conflict – and saw a major expansion to government  debt and a significant hike in policy interest rates by central  banks. The ramifications of some of that may not have  surfaced yet and we are still to see their full impact and how  they interact.