【英文】毕马威报告：全球经济展望（50页）

英文研究报告 2023年04月20日 10:44 管理员

One lingering risk is that rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions would see further falls in house prices, particularly in the U.S. and some European economies where valuations are relatively high. That in turn could depress consumer confidence and spending again. However, the labor market remains relatively tight across most countries, and we are not expecting any major rise in unemployment this year, as outlined in our forecasts for individual countries in the Appendix. This should provide an important support for households’ incomes and consumer spending, even though real incomes are squeezed as a result of the high levels of inflation. Households’ purchasing power is expected to recover gradually over the medium term as wage increases overtake inflation once more from next year.

Despite the resilience of the labor market and the improving inflation conditions, we expect global economic growth to be relatively modest over the next two years, and to stay below its long-term average (see Chart 4). Global growth is expected to be driven by the recovery of the Chinese economy and a relatively strong growth in some of the emerging markets, while the Eurozone and U.S. economies are expected to contribute less to global growth over the next two years. Risks to our forecasts are broadly skewed to the downside given the volatility in financial markets. The global economy has been through a series of significant shocks over the past three years – the Covid-19 pandemic and the RussiaUkraine conflict – and saw a major expansion to government debt and a significant hike in policy interest rates by central banks. The ramifications of some of that may not have surfaced yet and we are still to see their full impact and how they interact.