【英文】高盛报告：2024年资产管理展望：拥抱新现实（25页）

After a phase of fast and forceful monetary policy tightening,  the reality in 2024 may be that interest rates across advanced  economies stay close to present levels throughout most of  the year. In the US, we think it is plausible the US Federal  Reserve (Fed) may have reached the end of its hiking cycle as  disinflation takes hold. In our view, it’s unlikely the Fed will  move quickly toward cutting interest rates unless economic  growth slows substantially. This raises the likelihood of  higher-for-longer interest rates. In the eurozone, we believe  weaker growth momentum and a large drag from tighter  financial policy and lending conditions skew the balance of  risks towards a pause in monetary policy tightening by the  European Central Bank (ECB) before a potential pivot toward  easing in the second half of 2024. The economic outlook remains fragile. While the Fed and ECB  seem to have steered away from a hard landing path during  the tightening cycle, exogenous shocks or a premature pivot  to policy easing may reignite inflation in a way that requires  a recession to force it lower. Conversely, further monetary  tightening might trigger a downturn just as the effects of  prior tightening begin to take hold. In the United Kingdom,  notwithstanding inflation volatility, we do not foresee  further interest rate increases by the Bank of England (BoE).  We expect slightly better—though still subdued—growth  over the near term.  Elsewhere, economies’ paths across regions are diverging,  with growth prospects and inflation patterns moving  in different directions and at different speeds. Japan’s  economy has been surprising to the upside, benefiting  from a domestic demand recovery that is driving unfamiliar  but desired wage growth and inflation. China’s short-term  growth prospects appear tilted to the downside, hampered  by property market indebtedness and demographic  headwinds. Elsewhere, early emerging market hikers— Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, and Poland—were  the first economies to see a sharp inflation slowdown.  The central banks in these countries have started to lower  interest rates or are close to doing so. In a desynchronized global cycle, with higher-for-longer  rates and slower growth in most advanced economies, the  road ahead remains uncertain. In our view, this calls for a  diversified and risk-conscious investment approach across  public and private markets.