【英文】高盛报告：2024年资产管理展望：拥抱新现实（25页）

英文研究报告 2023年11月29日 07:03 管理员

After a phase of fast and forceful monetary policy tightening, the reality in 2024 may be that interest rates across advanced economies stay close to present levels throughout most of the year. In the US, we think it is plausible the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may have reached the end of its hiking cycle as disinflation takes hold. In our view, it’s unlikely the Fed will move quickly toward cutting interest rates unless economic growth slows substantially. This raises the likelihood of higher-for-longer interest rates. In the eurozone, we believe weaker growth momentum and a large drag from tighter financial policy and lending conditions skew the balance of risks towards a pause in monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) before a potential pivot toward easing in the second half of 2024. The economic outlook remains fragile. While the Fed and ECB seem to have steered away from a hard landing path during the tightening cycle, exogenous shocks or a premature pivot to policy easing may reignite inflation in a way that requires a recession to force it lower. Conversely, further monetary tightening might trigger a downturn just as the effects of prior tightening begin to take hold. In the United Kingdom, notwithstanding inflation volatility, we do not foresee further interest rate increases by the Bank of England (BoE). We expect slightly better—though still subdued—growth over the near term. Elsewhere, economies’ paths across regions are diverging, with growth prospects and inflation patterns moving in different directions and at different speeds. Japan’s economy has been surprising to the upside, benefiting from a domestic demand recovery that is driving unfamiliar but desired wage growth and inflation. China’s short-term growth prospects appear tilted to the downside, hampered by property market indebtedness and demographic headwinds. Elsewhere, early emerging market hikers— Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, and Poland—were the first economies to see a sharp inflation slowdown. The central banks in these countries have started to lower interest rates or are close to doing so. In a desynchronized global cycle, with higher-for-longer rates and slower growth in most advanced economies, the road ahead remains uncertain. In our view, this calls for a diversified and risk-conscious investment approach across public and private markets.