【英文】高盛报告：新兴市场展望2024（35页）

On the fiscal policy side the picture is mixed. The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor envisions some moderate tightening in parts of CEEMEA and Latam, but limited changes in Asia. Our forecasts have a bit more tightening in Asia, with reduction of more than 1pp in the deficit Korea and the Philippines and more modest changes in Taiwan and India (we envision fiscal consolidation in India starting only in earnest after the national elections in Q2). EM current accounts have swung back and forth since the pandemic period. Initially, Covid lockdowns and relatively modest fiscal support meant a contraction in domestic demand and improvement in many EM current account positions early in the pandemic. But after the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed commodity prices higher, the median and the weaker “tail” of EMs saw large current account deteriorations, followed by some improvement more recently as energy prices eased (Exhibit 13).Large asset price moves in the US and China in 2023 have masked a relatively good year for EM performance. The rally in US large-cap equities, rise in US interest rates, and strength in the US dollar have contrasted with slowing Chinese growth, poor equity performance, and a weaker renminbi. But EM ex-China has proved resilient in 2023, and fared well in comparison to DM ex-US.  Going forward, there is a case for some moderation in the prevailing EM headwinds — US rates have come off a bit and we expect Fed easing by Q4 2024 (and more EM easing over the year), Dollar strength is slowly eroding, and global trade may be bottoming out. China’s deceleration should continue but at a gradual pace. The somewhat more benign global and EM macro outlook should be a positive for EM assets in 2024. Against this, however, valuations do not look particularly cheap (Exhibit 14).