【英文】世界银行报告：2024年世界经济形势与展望（196页）

英文研究报告 2024年01月29日 07:54 管理员

The world economy proved more resilient than expected in 2023 amid significant monetary tightening and lingering policy uncertainties worldwide, even as multiple shocks arising from conflict and climate change wrought havoc on the lives and livelihoods of millions, further jeopardizing progress towards sustainable development. Economic growth generally outperformed expectations, especially in several large developed and developing economies. However, this apparent resilience masks both short-term risks and structural vulnerabilities. Amid high levels of debt, rising borrowing costs, persistently low investment, weak global trade, and mounting geopolitical risks, the global economy is expected to grow at a subpar pace in 2024 and 2025. While a hard landing of the world economy seems increasingly unlikely, accelerating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) during a protracted period of subdued growth will remain a daunting challenge. Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 per cent in 2023 to 2.4 per cent in 2024 (see figure I.1 and table I.1). Growth is forecast to improve moderately to 2.7 per cent in 2025 but will remain below the pre-pandemic trend growth rate of 3.0 per cent. The short-term growth prospects for most developing countries have deteriorated. Forecasts indicate that many lowincome and vulnerable countries are likely to see only modest growth in the coming years, making a full recovery of pandemic losses ever more elusive.