【英文】世界银行报告：2024全球经济展望（230页）

Despite these improvements, the recovery from  the global recession of 2020 over the forecast  horizon will remain modest. Overall EMDE  growth is projected to be weaker than in the  2010s, partly as a result of the slowing of China’s  potential growth (figure 1.9.A). Excluding China,  EMDE output is set to continue following a lower  path than before 2020 (figure 1.9.B). This  projected recovery is also substantially weaker than that following the global financial crisis, reflecting  the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise in interest rates, as well as longer-term scarring  from the pandemic and declining growth in  working-age populations (figure 1.9.C).  In commodity exporters, growth is expected to  strengthen to 2.9 percent in 2024 and to edge up  further to 3.1 percent in 2025 (figure 1.9.D).  Much of this projected improvement is due to  stronger activity in energy exporters, where energy  production is expected to rebound somewhat  following large cuts in 2023. Although the forecast  assumes modest energy price declines this year and  next, projected prices should be sufficient to  support investment and fiscal revenues in these  economies, which should boost broader economic  confidence and non-energy-sector activity.