【英文】世界银行报告：2024全球经济展望（230页）

英文研究报告 2024年01月30日 07:57 管理员

Despite these improvements, the recovery from the global recession of 2020 over the forecast horizon will remain modest. Overall EMDE growth is projected to be weaker than in the 2010s, partly as a result of the slowing of China’s potential growth (figure 1.9.A). Excluding China, EMDE output is set to continue following a lower path than before 2020 (figure 1.9.B). This projected recovery is also substantially weaker than that following the global financial crisis, reflecting the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise in interest rates, as well as longer-term scarring from the pandemic and declining growth in working-age populations (figure 1.9.C). In commodity exporters, growth is expected to strengthen to 2.9 percent in 2024 and to edge up further to 3.1 percent in 2025 (figure 1.9.D). Much of this projected improvement is due to stronger activity in energy exporters, where energy production is expected to rebound somewhat following large cuts in 2023. Although the forecast assumes modest energy price declines this year and next, projected prices should be sufficient to support investment and fiscal revenues in these economies, which should boost broader economic confidence and non-energy-sector activity.