【英文】世界银行报告：中国高铁的崛起 China’s High-Speed Rail Development（100P）

英文研究报告 2019年07月10日 13:04 管理员

Rather they have created an accelerated growth in total rail traffic, which the previous network, close to full capacity, was unable to achieve. By 2017, HSR was carrying about 50 percent of all rail trips, on about 20 percent of the national rail network. Because the construction of new high-speed lines is ongoing and the HSR passenger volumes and pkm continue to grow at over 20 percent per year, these trends are likely to continue in the near future. The average traffic density2 on HSR main lines such as the Beijing–Shanghai line and the Beijing–Guangzhou line, and on regional intercity lines in the Yangtze and Pearl networks, is over 50 million passengers annually; however, on many of the smaller secondary lines it is 10 million or less. The average density overall on the HSR network has increased from 10 million in its first full year (2009) to the current 23 million passengers (figure 3.2).

This is about twice the density of HSR in Europe and a substantial figure for a large system in its early years of existence, but it is still only two-thirds of the Japanese Shinkansen system-wide density (UIC 2019). Although many services operate over long distances of up to 2,500 km, comparatively few passengers travel from end to end. The average trip distance in both the Beijing–Shanghai and Beijing–Guangzhou corridors in 2013 was about 500 km, and the lines also carry significant volumes of interlining traffic to and from feeder lines (about 30 percent in the case of the Beijing–Shanghai line). When a line has opened, the typical pattern has been for demand to ramp up in the first two or three years, with traffic in the first full year of operation being about 70 percent of the steady state.

The characteristics naturally vary by route, but the surveys covered five major routes (two main lines, two regional lines, and one intercity line), together representing over 25 percent of the total China Rail Highspeed (CRH) demand. In 2015, about 50 percent of both CRH passengers and pkm came from conventional rail. About 25 percent of passengers transferred from bus and car, but these riders represented only 15 percent of pkm, because they were concentrated in the shorter-distance trips. Conversely, about 10 percent of passengers transferred from air, but these riders represented about 20 percent of pkm because they were all on longer-distance trips.