【英文】瑞信报告：美国2019年校园贷展望 Student Loan Outlook（24页）

英文研究报告 2019年09月25日 08:36 管理员

We reviewed Mintel student loan mail data through June 2019 and found that (a) private in-school mailers are rising rapidly at an estimated +26% y/y, likely signaling increasing competition (b) new entrants, SoFi and Earnest, have initiated in-school campaigns, but in moderate quantities. Nelnet does not appear to be a factor yet (c) all eyes are on July data which has not been released. July is the heaviest in-school mail month of the year. Regarding data limitations, Mintel's data is an estimate. Additionally, mail volume represents only a portion of total marketing spend which includes search, social, print, radio, television, outdoor advertising and more. Private loan mailings increase by an estimated 26% year over year: Through June ‘19 Mintel estimated that in-school private student loan mailings increased to ~82mm pieces, for a 26% / 16.8mm increase over last year's ~65mm. The gain was driven largely by Discover which sent an estimated ~50mm private loan mailers through June 2019, a +32% / 12mm y/y increase from ‘18's ~38mm. The rest of the increase came from College Ave (+2.4mm), Wells (+1.7mm), Citizens (+1.4mm), & SoFi (+1.7mm). Incumbents still sending large quantities: SLM sent an estimated 16.5mm in 2019, down 16% y/y, from 2018's 19.7mm. College Ave sent ~7.2mm in '19, up 51% y/y, from 2018's ~4.8mm.

Wells sent an estimated 3.5mm in 2019, up 91% y/y, from 2018's ~1.5mm. Citizens sent an estimated 2.5mm in 2019, up 127%, from 2018's ~1.1mm. Mintel has not recorded an inschool mailer from PNC 2019, though PNC does mail for refi loans. New competitors testing water: Both Earnest & SoFi initiated private in-school mail campaigns in 19. Earnest sent an estimated 487k pieces of mail in June, representing 1.2% of total June mailings and 0.7% of all 2019 mailings. SoFi sent an estimated 1.6mm pieces of mail in June representing 3.4% of total June mailings and 1.9% of all ‘19 in-school mailings. We no longer see mail from Ascent in ‘19, whereas the lender sent an estimated 243k pieces in the first six months of ‘18. Estimated refi mail volume up 13% y/y through June: YTD through June 2019, refi mailers were up 13% y/y from 2018's ~65mm to 2019's ~73mm. the ~8mm increase was driven by Earnest at ~12.7mm pieces in 2019, up 135% y/y, from 2018's ~5.4mm, Well Fargo's ~5.5mm pieces in 2019, up from very little in 2018, offset by a decline from SoFi – 2018's ~35.9mm pieces to ~30.4mm in 2019.

Increasing awareness of refi: Awareness of the refi product appears to be growing. A Google Trends search for ‘student loan refinance’ shows that queries for the term continue to grow relative to prior years. SoFi’s 2Q refi volume slowing: We track SoFi’s total lifetime refi originations from securitization data which suggest that SoFi slowed their refi originations in 2Q. We are interested in whether the firm is allocating capital to other projects of which it has many. Navient refi decelerated in 2Q: Navient’s refi originations were $980mm in 1Q, up 88% year over year, and were $850mm in 2Q, up 26% year over year. Lower interest rate could help refi originations: Most existing unsubsidized Stafford graduate loans ($20bn+ of annual originations) were originated at between 6%-6.6% while Grad PLUS loans ($10bn of annual originations) were originated at 7%-7.5%. We think that a 1.75% fed funds rate could provide some boost to originations. Refi lenders continue focusing on in-school undergrad loans: The amount of securitized undergrad-only refinance volume is rising faster than total refi volume as more refi lenders turn to higher interest rate undergrad only loans. The issue is that undergrad-only balances are lower than grad balances.