【英文】瑞信报告：中国能获得科技独立吗Asia Technology Strategy China: Can it gain tech independence?（116P）

英文研究报告 2019年11月15日 06:27 管理员

Technology import totaled up to US$449 bn in 2018, growing 19% YoY. Tech remains the largest part of the total China imports pie. Machinery & transport equipment, Oil and other fuels, and non-food raw materials constituted the other major sectors of imports. Within technology, import of semiconductors by far constituted the largest proportion (~70%) of imports, with memory semi totaling up to US$122 bn (~27% of total tech imports) and other semis totaling up to US$189 bn (~42% of total tech imports) in 2018. Import of equipment— to produce semis and display parts—was another important part of total imports (US$23 bn; 5% of total). China also imports a large part of its telecom equipment (US$41 bn in 2018; 9% of total tech imports), while at the same time is a large telecom exporter to the world, highlighting the interdependencies of the global technology sector.

A rise in memory ASPs over the past two years, and strong growth in the market share for Chinese smartphone brands such as Huawei (which in turn consumes a lot of memory), led to a strong growth in import of memory semiconductors over the past two years—from US$64 bn in 2016 to US$122 bn in 2018. A combination of subdued growth in computing markets and a higher localisation of non-memory semis (see more details later in the report under the logic semiconductor section), non-memory semi import has been flattish in recent years—ranging from US$172 bn to US$192 bn in the past five years. Importantly, China's push to create a domestic semi and display production industry has meant that equipment imports have continued to grow rapidly from just US$8 bn in 2014 to US$23 bn in 2018.