【英文】2019年全球电池技术发展报告BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES Powering the Era of Clean Electrifcation（84P）

英文研究报告 2019年11月26日 07:27 管理员

Advanced battery technologies are poised to dramatically change our lives, sooner than many market actors realize. Recent rapid improvements in lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery costs and performance, coupled with growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and increased renewable energy generation, have unleashed massive investments in the advanced battery technology ecosystem. These investments will push both Li-ion and new battery technologies across competitive thresholds for new applications more quickly than anticipated. This, in turn, will reduce the costs of decarbonization in key sectors and speed the global energy transition beyond the expectations of mainstream global energy models. Self-reinforcing feedback loops linking favorable public policies, additional research and development (R&D) funding, new manufacturing capacity, and subsequent learningcurve and economy-of-scale efects will lead to continued cost declines and exponential demand growth.

Through 2025, advances in technology and manufacturing will keep Li-ion batteries at the forefront of electrochemical energy storage markets. Emerging innovations will improve all aspects of Li-ion battery performance, with costs projected to approach $87/kWh by 2025.1 These rapid improvements and cost declines will make battery-based applications cost competitive with both stationary and mobile applications in the near term (Exhibit ES1). For example, these changes are already contributing to cancellations of planned natural gas power generation. The need for these new natural gas plants can be ofset through clean energy portfolios (CEPs) of energy storage, efciency, renewable energy, and demand response.2 Natural gas plants that move forward are at high risk of becoming stranded assets, and as early as 2021, some existing power plants could be more expensive to continue operating than least-cost CEP alternatives, depending on gas prices. On the electric mobility front, low-cost Li-ion batteries will contribute to a rapid scale-up of demand for smaller (e.g., two- and three-wheeled) EVs in fast-growing markets like India by 2023, as upfront capital costs drop below those for internal combustion engine vehicles. A similar shift, due to capital cost competitiveness, will occur for personal and commercial EVs in the US market after 2025.