【英文】摩根士丹利报告：全球科技业：数据时代颠覆了供应链Global Technology The Data Era Disrupts the M Supply Chain（60页）

英文研究报告 2019年12月20日 07:41 管理员

Our framework uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to identify 18 technology supply chain companies that look well positioned, and 18 companies that look challenged out of 150 global supply chain companies under coverage. Further, we highlight 5 of the clearest supply chain companies that look particularly well-positioned or potentially challenged to transition for the Data Era including Broadcom, Murata, and Foxconn as well positioned companies and Nissha and Visonox as potentially challenged companies. However, it’s important to note we are in the very early innings of Data Era and companies can evolve to meet new demand in the Data Era. Our framework is a roadmap which we believe can spur investor discussion and help companies improve their positioning over the next several years.

Our framework assesses how well companies are positioned to sustain competitive advantage and leadership in the Data Era. As the new, enterprise-centric cycle unfolds, supply chain companies face two major challenges. First, they’re highly dependent on consumer-oriented PC and smartphone sales, which represent roughly 40% of revenues for the ten largest component suppliers globally and nearly 55% in Greater China. Second, they need to diversify their manufacturing platforms to combat tariffs, and suppliers with a manufacturing footprint concentrated in China may face margin pressure as they shift to higher-cost locations.

For the quant model, 12 of our global technology analysts identified the financial metrics that signal business reinvestment can drive a competitive advantage in the next cycle. The five measures they agreed on were: (1) R&D/sales, (2) CapEx/sales, (3) gross margin, (4) sales growth Y/Y and (5) ROIT, or net income/ R&D + CapEx. l The analysts collaborated to identify qualitative success factors that should sustain a competitive edge. Their discussion zeroed in on one structural and two key strategic criteria: 1. Market dominance. Structurally high barriers to entry, like wafer fab costs, IP, or scale can anchor competitive leadership. 2. Diversification. Companies benefit from strategic decisions to move into market adjacencies, and therefore aren't afraid of cannibalization. Our analysts see diversification encompassing products, the customer base, and/or the manufacturing footprint, especially expanding capabilities to deliver Data Era solutions including AI/ML, IoT, and cloud data center infrastructure. We note that some financial metrics tie into our qualitative factors: companies that look to diversify revenue have higher R&D and/or capex intensity. 3. Pricing premium. Pricing power often depends on a strategic vision to bring differentiated products to market, e.g. the sensor, camera, and connectivity capabilities that have led in the Mobile Internet era. Premium pricing also enables repetition of the cycle with profits for continued re-investment which allows for greater IP or scale to dominate a market and/ or to diversify products. Again, pricing drives higher gross margin, a quant metric, as we explore in the case study on Apple suppliers.