【英文】J.P. 摩根报告：香港房地产（94页）

英文研究报告 2020年02月10日 13:46 管理员

The office rental market is probably the most ‘normal’ among the three property subsectors, i.e. the growth rates of office rent in most districts were most in line withoverall nominal GDP growth. In fact, the overall and the Central office rents lagged

nominal GDP by 26% and 28% over the last ten years, respectively. The only areawhich outpaced the Hong Kong economy during the same period is Island Eastoffice. Despite the fact that demand for Central office space over the last few years was mainly driven by Mainland corporates, due to the commoditized nature of office space, we believe rental growth was kept in check with the increase in supply in fringe areas.

Despite the continuous low interest rate environment in Hong Kong, we believe one of the major concerns is the potential sharp rise in the local unemployment rate which has been steady in the 3-3.5% range for the last ten years. This is the direct result of:

 Weakness in the import/export sector from the US-China trade issues;

 The indirect impact from the slowdown of the China economy;

 The slump of tourist spending and the temporary impact on retail sales from recent social events.

The local unemployment rate has increased to 3.2% of late (for Sep to Nov 2019) and the downtrend in the employment picture was mainly driven by: 1) the import/export sector; 2) retail sector; 3) accommodation and food service. These three sectors alone

account for 25% of total employment in Hong Kong. The collective decline in the employment of these three sectors was 88,300 over the last 12 months.

【英文】J.P. 摩根报告：香港房地产（94页）