【英文】J.P.摩根报告：新冠病毒对中国消费互联网的影响（52页）

英文研究报告 2020年03月09日 06:54 管理员

We believe JD's 1Q20 GMV/revenue will be relatively resilient against the coronavirus outbreak vs. other ecommerce peers, due to 1) Own logistic capacity; 2) High exposure to less discretionary demand (home appliance, FMCG, fresh foods); 3) Majority of its buyers are more affluent population in higher tier cities, where the disruption on supply chain is less severe. Looking beyond the near-term weakness, we believe JD can benefit from the cyclical pickup of large home appliance demand and pent-up demand for smart phones, and the accelerating penetration of new retail business. We reiterate OW rating and raised Dec-20 PT to US$50. Resiliency against coronavirus outbreak. We forecast JD’s 1Q20 revenue to drop 13% YoY, milder than most ecommerce peers. JD’s reliance on 1P model (over 50% of GMV) gave it advantages against the coronavirus impact, as it has more merchandise in its own warehouses, and it delivers most orders through its own logistics department, whose capacity is less affected vs. the other listed express delivery companies (Tongda companies).

Its focus on high-tier cities’ residents also means fewer challenges on logistics. Additionally, unlike other listed ecommerce platforms which have high GMV exposure to apparel, JD’s key categories are home appliances, electronic products, FMCG, fresh foods, etc. (2/3 of 1P revenue from electronics and home appliances and 1/3 from general merchandise), which are largely staples or non-impulsive demand, except for smartphones which should see more impact in 1Q20. If we simply assume smart phones/IT products/home appliance/FMCG/others each account for 20% of 1P revenue, and respectively delivers -40%/-20%/-20%/+20%/+10% YoY, overall 1P revenue should drop 11% YoY, while 3P and other revenue should drop more than that. However, as JD needs to directly shoulder higher delivery staff cost, and will suffer from deleveraging effect of smaller GMV/revenue, we project its bottom-line will turn into a loss in 1Q20, but the profitability should return to normal into 2H20.

Potential rebound into 2H20. Fresh foods/FMCG/small appliances already saw demand picking up in recent weeks, and we expect large appliances to see rebounding demand in 2H20 on delayed property completion cycle, as well as pentup demand for 5G smart phones. We forecast 25% YoY revenue growth in 2H20. Meaningful long-term potential from new retail. Our recent research on China new retail industry (full note here) suggests the total addressable market may reach RMB 24 trillion and we forecast new retail GMV for internet players may hit RMB 2 trillion by 2023E. JD's 2023E revenue/profit opportunity may approach RMB 61b/9b, which suggests c30% upside to JPMe current 2023E earnings estimate. We believe the coronavirus event will lead more investors to look at this potential, which is usually overlooked in JD’s case. OW with new DCF-based Dec-20 PT US$50, reflecting our 8% hike for 2021E EPS and upward revision for the long-term earnings, though we cut 2020E EPS by 44% on coronavirus impact on 1H20. US$50 translates into 2021E P/E of 27x.