【英文】波士顿咨询报告：限制对华贸易如何终结美国半导体业的领导地位报告（42页）

英文研究报告 2020年03月26日 07:11 管理员

In order to avoid these negative outcomes, policymakers must devise solutions that simultaneously address US national security concerns and preserve global market access for US semiconductor companies — a fundamental pillar of the proven innovation model that will allow the industry to continue to deliver technology breakthroughs that are crucial for US economic competitiveness and national security.

particularly as the world advances into the era of digital transformation and artificial intelligence (AI). The leadership position of the US, which has long supplied 45% to 50% of worldwide semiconductor demand, is grounded in an innovation-intensive model that relies on access to global markets. This access provides the large customer base needed to achieve scale to fund the high levels of investment in R&D that allow US companies to maintain their technological edge over global competitors, and it enables the highly specialized supply chains required for the industry’s complex manufacturing processes. China accounts for a very large portion of the global semiconductor market, generating approximately 23% of demand in 2018. The US-China frictions have generated significant headwinds for US semiconductor companies. Since the start of the "trade war" the median year-on-year revenue growth of the top 25 US semiconductor companies has plummeted from 10% in the four quarters immediately prior to the implementation of the first rounds of tariffs in July 2018, to approximately 1% in late 2018.

And in each of the three quarters after the US restricted sales of certain technology products to Huawei in May 2019, the top US semiconductor companies have reported a median revenue decline of between 4% and 9%. Many of these companies have cited the trade conflict with China as a significant factor in their performance. Although the “phase one” trade agreement signed by the US and China in January 2020 contains provisions on key issues for the technology industry, such as China’s protection of intellectual property and its technology transfer practices, it does not address other issues such as the direct state support that China gives to its domestic semiconductor industry. In addition, restrictions on exports of US-based technology products to certain Chinese entities associated with US national security concerns still remain in place. In this report, we evaluate how the ongoing US-China frictions may affect the US semiconductor industry under two scenarios. The first scenario assumes that current restrictions will remain in place, perpetuating the status quo. The second scenario considers a further escalation that results in a complete halt in bilateral technology trade, effectively decoupling the US and Chinese technology industries.