【英文】J.P. 摩根报告：关于新冠病毒、石油和美国选举的10个常见问题（32页）

英文研究报告 2020年03月30日 07:07 管理员

Epidemics/pandemics are recurring issues in the public health sphere, but they are rarely material for the global economy or markets, for two reasons: (1) outbreaks have occurred less frequently in systemically-important countries than in smaller ones; and (2) until COVID-19, containment measures have never involved broad and such disruptive lockdowns as have occurred in China and Italy. Ranking COVID-19 versus previous epidemics: (1) a wider geographic spread (+100 countries) compared to SARS (26 countries), swine flu (20), MERS (27) and Ebola (8); (2) more total infections (+120k) than SARS (+8.5k), MERS (+2.5k) and Ebola (+28k) but fewer than swine flu (+250k cases); and (3) lower mortality rate (about 2%) than SARS (10%), MERS (30%) and Ebola (90%) but higher than swine flu (1%).

Containment measures in Asia and Italy are driving unprecedented collapses in monthly activity data and eventually a Q1 GDP contraction. One-quarter GDP contractions are common due to epidemics (SARS 2003), natural disasters (Japan’s Tohoku quake 2011) or even climate events (US polar vortex in 2014, South African drought 2018 ). These events proved transitory in that growth surged in the subsequent quarter and left the full-year trend unaffected. Hence the prevailing view that COVID’s impact should follow a “v”. The infection rate is crucial for determining the shape of the business and profits cycle in 2020. Forecasts for a sharp but short hit to output are based on a recognition that infection rates for respiratory diseases tend to peak and then decelerate to low single digits within two months, thus allowing economic activity to normalize within a quarter. But the more deferred the infection rate peak or the greater the succession of outbreaks to other major countries, the more likely a one-quarter contraction turns into a two-quarter one, so technically a recession.