【英文】J.P. 摩根报告：中国教育业报告：线上教育（65页）

英文研究报告 2020年03月31日 07:09 管理员

It is not easy to assess the size of the AST industry, let alone online AST, given its fragmented nature and varying statistics from different sources and institutions. That said, based on figures from consulting firms (e.g., Frost & Sullivan, iResearch), we estimate online K-12 AST revenue to be RMB42.5B in 2019, more than quadrupled in five years since 2014 at a +40% CAGR. More importantly, this implies online has penetrated about 8.4% of the China’s K-12 AST market (based on revenues), a significant jump from 2.7% five years ago.

Then how big can the online K-12 AST market become in 3-5 years? Here’s some food for thought: A baseline. The trend growth of K-12 AST industry (offline + online) has been extremely steady at 12-13% in the past decade or so, which in our view is unlikely to accelerate or decelerate significantly. Offline vs online. Offline AST has grown at a ~10% CAGR in the past three or five years, while online AST has exhibited around 40% growth p.a. As such, revenue penetration of online AST has more than doubled to 8%+ in 2019, versus only about 3% five years ago. Penetration. This implies much higher online penetration in terms of ‘enrollment’ or ‘student’, given the price disparity between the two, i.e., ASP of online large-class live courses (by far the most mainstream product in recent years) is around RMB30-50/hour, which is about half of regular offline classes (RMB60-100/hour, typically depending on the city-tiers). Put differently, online penetration based on student numbers is probably at over 15% for China’s AST industry last year (Figure 11). It’s impossible to say with any conviction how big online K-12's total addressable market (TAM) is, not least because China is already one of the, if not the, most advanced and penetrated country for online after-school tutoring.

For instance, even in your author’s home country, S. Korea, which has one of the highest AST penetration AND internet penetration rates, online courses accounted for only 3.1% of K-12 AST revenues in 2019. Also, only 7.5% of K-12 students in Korea have participated in online AST during 2019, versus a remarkable 75% of AST participate rate for total (Figure 10). Granted, this may not be a fair comparison given the relatively inferior product quality in Korea, in that most of online courses are offered in a pre-recorded format with limited tutor support, in turn possibly deterring online adoption in Korea.