【英文】摩根士丹利报告：全球宏观策略报告：现金为王（137页）

英文研究报告 2020年04月07日 07:27 管理员

Cold,hard cash is priceless when you need it the most. And over the past two weeks, investors have needed cash so badly, they have paid exorbitant prices for it. This demand for US dollar cash exists both inside the US and outside.For example, investors have sold government bonds to raise cash, despite relentless buying and the promise of relentless buying by central banks,and sold precious metals as well (see Exhibit 1). Investors have paid up to procure US dollars in the cross-currency basis markets,as well as purchased US dollars outright in the FX markets (see Exhibit 2). The demand for US dollars has been so great that the DXY index rallied 8% over the 8 trading days ending Thursday, March 19. That gain was the largest 8-day annualized gain on record. The price of oil and gold,among other commodities, is quoted in US dollars. So,as the US dollar prices of these commodities fall,as they have been, producers/sellers of those commodities receive fewer dollars for that production/sales. If those producers/sellers rely on those US dollars to meet obligations,e.g., payrolls, debt payments,etc.,and they can’t procure as many of them as before, then they have to get them some other way.

And all of this demand for US dollars – which pushed the price of the US dollar up and the price of almost every other asset down – came amidst a Federal Reserve attempting to supply as many US dollars to the market as possible. Over the past two weeks, the Fed aimed this supply at Primary Dealers, Depository Institutions, Money Market Funds, and issuers of Commercial Paper. Of all the ways the Fed tried to inject US dollar liquidity into the global financial system, we believe its purchases of US Treasuries and agency MBS have been successful. But its other attempts have failed, some for the same reasons, others for different reasons.For an in-depth review of what the Fed has done,and an explanation for why these approaches aren't working or not working fast enough, please see US Dollar Cash Is Liquid Gold. Our bottom line from the research? If the Fed isn't willing or able to directly inject liquidity, below current clearing prices, to those who need it most and Primary Dealers aren't able to intermediate liquidity from the Fed effectively, we think the Fed will have no choice but to continue buying UST and agency MBS at a faster pace and in much larger size.