【英文】麦格理报告：病毒冲击下的全球商品投资策略（81页）

英文研究报告 2020年04月14日 07:37 管理员

Energy commodities • Global crude oil prices have been under sustained pressure since the virus outbreak, partly offset only by the OPEC/Russia 3yo supply management strategy. But the alliance eventually failed on 8-Mar, when the Saudis and Russians broke ranks + cut product prices + boosted output. Team Oil has re-assessed the global balance outlook (Oil Demand: Steep Loss but Short Duration, Dwivedi, et al. 20-Mar-20), and does not see a price recovery from new US$20/bbl-lows until 2H20 (Lowering Oil Price Estimates, Dwivedi, Chancellor, Liang; 26-Mar- 20). Their bearish outlook undermines cost of production/delivery of all other commodities. • Thermal coal’s seaborne prices are (so far) insensitive to the virus driver, holding near a floor set in 4Q19, after falling 20-50% from 2018's highs on a recovery in China's local supply+ Asia’s gas surplus + China's hydro capacity outperformance vs. slowing global power demand (Thermal coal’s price recovery, postponed, 2-Mar-20). Prices are stable, but downside risk builds on weakening global gas prices (i.e. which is exposed to virus driver). • Spot price of uranium is slipping below its $25/lb floor (peaked at US$29/lb, Nov-18; small lift Jul-19 when US govt deferred s232 application), edging down ~5%YTD.

While this is a relatively robust price performance compared to other industrials/energy commodities, uranium’s price outlook is heavily dependent on reduced production rates of key miners Cameco and KazAtomProm (vs. ample inventories + weakening power demand). Base Metals • Fundamentals for the Base Metals’ complex have deteriorated on virus-hit demand; stocks are rising everywhere. Copper’s price has taken a hit on another speculative exodus + China’s stalled power sector activity + shrinking global trade for Cu-bearing goods, all only partly offset by weakening mine supply growth. Zinc's price has been hit YTD by a collapse in global auto demand (galvanising). Sliding input costs of aluminium production (power/alumina) caps the metal’s price performance. After being rattled by Indonesia’s evolving trade policy in 2H19, nickel's price has collapsed back in line with those of the other base metals again, hit by both industry-specific, relentless NPI output (Nickel supply: 2019 highlights & 2020 outlook, 13- Feb-20) and the more general rising uncertainty on the short-term growth outlook.