【英文】瑞银报告：中国猪肉市场报告（41页）

英文研究报告 2020年05月06日 06:55 管理员

The December 2019 survey results indicated consumer demand for packaged meat is fairly sensitive to price changes, with 5%/10%/20%/30% price hikes likely to result in 11%/23%/39%/40% of regular buyers cutting back on their purchase frequencies. In the December 2019 UBS Evidence Lab survey, SH appeared to be maintaining its leading position in the China packaged meat market in terms of brand awareness, purchase frequency and quality perception, followed by Jinluo and Yurun, with SH’s lead against the latter two narrowing compared with the April 2019 survey. These top-three brands collectively represented 58% of the most often purchased packaged meat brands by regular buyers in the December 2019 survey, down from 72% in the April 2019 survey. SH’s premium WLTM brand, Smithfield, which was launched in 2015, still has low consumer awareness and purchase frequency. In terms of repurchase intention and outlook for spending increase in the next six months, SH and Jinluo respectively emerged as the top- and second-ranked choices by regular buyers among the three major brands in the December 2019 UBS Evidence Lab survey.

Historical 12-month forward PE: Based on our estimates, SH is trading at 22.1x 12-month forward PE, which is about 2.8 SD above its historical average. SH's 12- month forward PE started to expand in mid-February 2020 and reached its current five-year historical high, mainly due to its seemingly unaffected packaged meat demand (a boost in demand for packaged meat in the near term due to hoarding and prolonged duration in higher China hog prices) from the COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, we think the good liquidity in A share market is also an important reason for SH's high PE in the near term. We believe further valuation upside for SH's could be derived once its packaged meat premiumisation efforts pay off.