【英文】牛津经济研究院报告：限制竞争对5G网络设备的经济影响（100页）

英文研究报告 2020年07月16日 07:29 管理员

The technological benefts of 5G are expected to be transformational, and potentially revolutionary. As the world prepares to roll out 5G, a healthy and competitive market will help to ensure that the network infrastructure is installed as efciently, quickly, and cheaply as possible. Economic theory suggests imposing restrictions on a major global provider such as Huawei would be expected to increase prices, which might in turn slow down 5G rollout. Furthermore, the quality of the infrastructure may be diminished, and productivity growth delayed and possibly lost. 3.1 WHAT HAPPENS IF HUAWEI IS RESTRICTED FROM COMPETING? For this study, we assume that if Huawei is restricted in each country’s 5G infrastructure market, network operators in that market would switch to one of the two other large providers, Ericsson and Nokia, in proportion to their existing market shares.

We believe that the other providers do not have the same global reach or breadth of products and services that would allow them to successfully compete for Huawei’s customers, and therefore their market shares would remain unchanged. We also assume that 5G network equipment market shares over the next decade in the baseline scenario (no restrictions on Huawei) will remain close to 4G market shares in 2018. In that year, Huawei had 29% of the global 4G market, while Ericsson and Nokia had 27% and 25% respectively of the global 4G market.