【英文】牛津经济研究院报告：限制竞争对5G网络设备的经济影响（100页）

The technological benefts  of 5G are expected to  be transformational, and  potentially revolutionary. As  the world prepares to roll out  5G, a healthy and competitive  market will help to ensure that  the network infrastructure is  installed as efciently, quickly,  and cheaply as possible. Economic theory suggests  imposing restrictions on a major  global provider such as Huawei  would be expected to increase  prices, which might in turn slow  down 5G rollout. Furthermore,  the quality of the infrastructure  may be diminished, and  productivity growth delayed  and possibly lost.  3.1 WHAT HAPPENS IF HUAWEI IS RESTRICTED FROM  COMPETING? For this study, we assume that  if Huawei is restricted in each  country’s 5G infrastructure  market, network operators  in that market would switch  to one of the two other large  providers, Ericsson and Nokia,  in proportion to their existing  market shares. 

We believe  that the other providers do  not have the same global  reach or breadth of products  and services that would allow  them to successfully compete  for Huawei’s customers, and  therefore their market shares  would remain unchanged. We also assume that 5G  network equipment market  shares over the next decade  in the baseline scenario (no  restrictions on Huawei) will  remain close to 4G market  shares in 2018. In that year,  Huawei had 29% of the global  4G market, while Ericsson  and Nokia had 27% and 25%  respectively of the global  4G market.