【英文】摩根士丹利报告：房地产行业-亚洲地产业：在家办公是一个新的挑战（65页）

英文研究报告 2020年08月17日 06:54 管理员

Rental outlook without factoring in WFH: Based on our analysis, office demand is directly and strongly correlated to GDP in every region. With 1H20 largely behind, the key is how much lower/higher will 2022 GDP be. This, along with supply growth (over the next three years) versus normal annual increase, drives our rental outlook. The mitigating factors have been robust trading activities and listing of Chinese companies in Hong Kong (as they move out of the US). Limited new supply in Hong Kong helps too. (B) We identify five key drivers of WFH decisions: 1. What percentage of overall office space is occupied by financial, professional, and TMT workers, which could easily work from home if need be? 2. How many organizations have WFH capability or business continuity planning (BCP) in place? 3. Does the country's digital infrastructure allow for seamless WFH? 4. Does the size of residential apartments and age of employees (family commitments) allow for effective WFH? 5. What other measures are in place to promote flexible work, such as flexible office, flexible hours, flexible days?

Quantifying the WFH impact: Base case: Around 40% of all employers (with IT infrastructure and knowledge workers) are able to return 10-15% of their space. This results in a decline in office demand of 4-6% initially. However, part of this is offset by social distancing requirements, driving desk space per person to rise (by 10-15% according to Cushman), although we think employers will keep that flattish at best. As shown in Exhibit 11 , we expect the largest rental declines to be in Hong Kong (-10%) and Tokyo (-9%). It is difficult to pinpoint exactly how much demand has declined as a result of WFH, so we have tried to build bull and bear case scenarios for cities in Asia. In our bull case, we assume no impact from WFH and a strong V-shaped recovery with positive GDP growth. The bear case assumption is significant demand decline owing to WFH, with no help from social distancing and muted GDP growth. We see that Singapore and Hong Kong face the worst bear case scenarios of a 30% decline in rental from here. They are dependent on global cyclicality and have had historically higher volatility in rental income.