【英文】欧洲安全研究所报告：全球未来战争预测（110页）

Exploring the pitfalls of prospective approaches or for pointing out some of their limits,  they are not necessarily neutral or unbiased.  In seeking to go beyond the present, science  fiction sometimes raises profound issues  that should not be overlooked. What is left of  ‘face-to-face’ conflicts in these imaginary  worlds, which more readily focus on guerrilla warfare, cyber-technology, etc. and assume  post-apocalyptic situations as a starting point?  This literature also reflects the fears and anxieties of an era. 

To be relevant, the approach we propose must  rely on a  large number of  science fiction and  fantasy novels in order to identify those that  stand out from the rest, as well as to reveal  the way in which these imaginative takes on  the future evolve over time. Since these works  tend to be mutually cross-fertilising, and have  the potential to inspire forthcoming events, it  is important to weigh up the value and likelihood of each of these imaginary versions of the  future. These imaginative constructs of the future have the potential to confront us with alternative and challenging versions of what lies  ahead. They are, finally, a  magnifying mirror  to help us take a step back from our own biased  projections.