【英文】剑桥报告：美元贬值的金融灾难压力测试（36页）

英文研究报告 2023年12月28日 07:04 管理员

The long-term interest rates, as shown in Figure 5, increase across the variants of the observing countries. The sharpest rise in the long-term US interest rate is primarily due to the long-term uncertainty outlook in the economy, as the Chinese RMB replaces the dollar as the reserve currency. The long-term rates are higher than their corresponding short-term rates to compensate for the additional risks associated with future outlook. China shows a consistent decrease in long-term interest rates across variants, a reflection of relatively weaker market sentiments toward the shock. Impact on country credit ratings and government debts Credit rating is the evaluation of a country’s credit worthiness of the foreign currency debt which is often assessed by the country’s ability to repay the debt and the likelihood of default. While credit ratings are not based on mathematical equations, they rely heavily on credit rating agencies’ judgement and experience, taking reference from market indicators. Table 5 shows the respective credit ratings of the selected countries affected in various severity of a dollar deposed scenario. All countries maintain their respective credit ratings in the standard variant from the baseline condition, without the Dollar Deposed scenario occurring, indicating credit ratings are inelastic to slight dollar depreciation. In the extreme variant X1, both China and the US decrease their credit ratings, indicating a drop in confidence levels amongst investors.