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【英文】剑桥报告:美元贬值的金融灾难压力测试(36页)

英文研究报告 2023年12月28日 07:04 管理员

The long-term interest rates, as shown in Figure 5,  increase across the variants of the observing countries.  The sharpest rise in the long-term US interest rate is  primarily due to the long-term uncertainty outlook in  the economy, as the Chinese RMB replaces the dollar  as the reserve currency. The long-term rates are  higher than their corresponding short-term rates to  compensate for the additional risks associated with  future outlook. China shows a consistent decrease in  long-term interest rates across variants, a reflection  of relatively weaker market sentiments toward the  shock. Impact on country credit ratings and government  debts Credit rating is the evaluation of a country’s credit  worthiness of the foreign currency debt which is often  assessed by the country’s ability to repay the debt and  the likelihood of default. While credit ratings are not  based on mathematical equations, they rely heavily  on credit rating agencies’ judgement and experience,  taking reference from market indicators. Table 5 shows the respective credit ratings of the  selected countries affected in various severity of a  dollar deposed scenario. All countries maintain their  respective credit ratings in the standard variant from  the baseline condition, without the Dollar Deposed  scenario occurring, indicating credit ratings are  inelastic to slight dollar depreciation. In the extreme  variant X1, both China and the US decrease their  credit ratings, indicating a drop in confidence levels  amongst investors.

【英文】剑桥报告:美元贬值的金融灾难压力测试(36页)

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