【英文】摩根士丹利报告：中国投资策略：中国黄金股票淘金热（52页）

英文研究报告 2020年09月02日 07:01 管理员

After the 11.1%-80.7% YTD rally for A and H shares in Chinese gold stocks, we see volume growth as the next leg to run as Chinese gold miners have a strong desire to boost their gold production profiles. Chinese gold majors, Zhaojin, Shandong Gold and Zijin, have strong pipelines of new projects. In particular, Zhaojin is currently working on a new mine, Haiyu, which is expected to boost its production from M 20 tons p.a. currently to 35 tons upon completion. We estimate this will imply 21% CAGR for 2019-2022e. We estimate Shandong Gold and Zijin both have 12% CAGR for 2019-22e in gold production following our deep dive analysis of the Growth options from recent acquisitions . We have built in the upside from these new projects in to our bull case scenarios as acquisitions are still subject to regulator approvals.

Year to date, Zhaojin has lagged peers and the gold price with just a 9% return. The underperformance was mainly due to the 1Q results miss as volume disappointed on the back of Covid-19. Management indicated operations have resumed since April and are on track to meet its full year production target. Zhaojin has guided for an annual gold production target of 606.8koz (down 4.5% YoY) of which 556.6koz is from self-mined gold, implying 11% growth for the higher margin own gold volume. On a spot gold price of US$2000/oz, the stock now trades at 16x 2021e PE, well below its historical average of 28x. Our new target price implies 26% upside from the current level.

Shandong Gold has been the best performer with a 79% rally year to date (versus -11.5% for the Hang Seng Index). Shandong Gold is the largest gold producer in China with 98% of its gross profit from gold. Recent corporate action has also contributed to the stock outperformance, as the adjusted share price made it more appealing to retail investors Exhibit 21 . Our new probability weighted price target of HK$24.45 implies ~3% upside from the current level. Under our bull case scenario for a US$2010/oz gold price in 2021e, Shandong Gold shows significant upside of 37% from the current level. This is due to its high earnings sensitivity as well as volume upside from new projects. We estimate every 1% move in the gold price leads to 3.3% change in its 2021e net profit. On our NPV analysis, we estimate NPV values of Rmb7.7bn for TMAC, assuming a 10% discount rate. This should add HK$2.6, to Shandong Gold’s current share price.