【英文】硅谷银行报告：2020年美国葡萄酒全球报告（71页）

英文研究报告 2020年03月21日 13:19 管理员

That’s a great place to launch into the report this year because our current oversupply in California and Washington isn’t due to speculative overplanting. It’s due to the wine industry’s growing miss in not providing consumers what they want. That’s not an adverse statement about the quality of what our industry produces. We’ve never made better wine. But based on the industry’s current results, making great wine isn’t good enough for the consumer today. We are increasingly missing the mark on consumer expectations, and our results show it. That said, I think the speaker at the 1894 convention was too focused on price and missed the nuance of how marketing and branding afect demand. Evaluating the process of how a consumer places value on something and then buys it involves far more than looking only at the sticker price. But there’s a truth in that statement we should contemplate nonetheless. And this year we should ask ourselves many new questions: • Why is the growth rate of wine by volume entering a period of decline?

Why are lower-priced segments still showing negative growth in both volume and sales dollars (value)? • Why are the higher-priced segments that have produced most of the growth of sales dollars we’ve seen for the past 25 years fattening out? • Is premiumization ending for the wine business, and if so, why? • Why are price increases so hard to come by? • How long will the current supply excess last? Those are difcult questions to face. But despite these melancholy thoughts, the current operating environment isn’t a complete calamity because macro views don’t tell the whole story, and the mood of the industry is mixed. Most of the industry will remember 2019 as a pretty good year despite the challenges, with almost a quarter of the industry reporting that 2019 was their best year in history! How can that be, given the headwinds? If we look more closely at the trends, we see a bifurcation of performance. More wineries are reporting great performance or record years, and at the same time, an increasing number of wineries are reporting poor results (see fgure 1).