【英文】硅谷银行报告：2020年美国葡萄酒全球报告（71页）

That’s a great place to launch into the report this year because  our current oversupply in California and Washington isn’t due to  speculative overplanting. It’s due to the wine industry’s growing  miss in not providing consumers what they want. That’s not  an adverse statement about the quality of what our industry  produces. We’ve never made better wine. But based on the  industry’s current results, making great wine isn’t good enough  for the consumer today. We are increasingly missing the mark on  consumer expectations, and our results show it. That said, I think the speaker at the 1894 convention was too  focused on price and missed the nuance of how marketing  and branding afect demand. Evaluating the process of how a  consumer places value on something and then buys it involves  far more than looking only at the sticker price. But there’s a truth  in that statement we should contemplate nonetheless. And this  year we should ask ourselves many new questions: • Why is the growth rate of wine by volume entering  a period of decline? 

Why are lower-priced segments still showing negative  growth in both volume and sales dollars (value)? • Why are the higher-priced segments that have produced  most of the growth of sales dollars we’ve seen for the  past 25 years fattening out? • Is premiumization ending for the wine business,  and if so, why? • Why are price increases so hard to come by? • How long will the current supply excess last? Those are difcult questions to face. But despite these  melancholy thoughts, the current operating environment isn’t  a complete calamity because macro views don’t tell the whole  story, and the mood of the industry is mixed.  Most of the industry will remember 2019 as a pretty good year  despite the challenges, with almost a quarter of the industry  reporting that 2019 was their best year in history! How can that  be, given the headwinds? If we look more closely at the trends, we see a bifurcation of  performance. More wineries are reporting great performance  or record years, and at the same time, an increasing number of  wineries are reporting poor results (see fgure 1).