【英文】经合组织报告：2021中期经济展望：预计中国经济2021年增长7.8%（22页）

英文研究报告 2021年03月24日 07:53 管理员

The recovery in activity continued in the fourth quarter of 2020, despite new virus outbreaks in many economies and tighter containment measures. Global output remained around 1% lower than prior to the pandemic, with marked variation in the pace of recovery across economies (Figure 1).1 The rebound has been relatively fast in several large emerging-market economies. Activity moved above pre-pandemic levels in China, India and Turkey, helped by strong fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures and a recovery in manufacturing and construction.

Output shortfalls remained relatively mild in many Asia-Pacific economies, including Australia, Japan and Korea, reflecting strong and effective containment measures, government support and the broader regional revival in manufacturing. Strong stimulus measures and improved financial conditions have boosted activity in the United States, although momentum slowed at the end of 2020. In the major European advanced economies the pace of the recovery has been more modest, reflecting extended disruptions from renewed virus outbreaks and associated reductions in working hours in many service sectors. The different sector specialisation of economies is also affecting growth, with the economies most dependent on international travel and tourism generally experiencing a larger GDP decline in 2020.