【英文】中美碳中和的框架和里程碑报告（41页）

英文研究报告 2021年05月25日 06:33 管理员

The United States and China have myriad diferences, from economy to industrial organization, that will shape their carbon neutrality pathways. An understanding of some of the more fundamental diferences is important for contextualizing the framework and milestones in this section. Economic Structure And Energy Consumption. Over the last four decades, China’s remarkable economic growth has been driven by investment, on the expenditure side of gross domestic product (GDP) and industry, on the production side of GDP. This industrial orientation of the Chinese economy means that industry is a signifcantly larger share of energy and CO2 emissions in China than in the United States (Figure 8). It also means that what is arguably China’s most important climate policy strategy, the shift toward a consumption-driven and services-oriented model of economic growth, is less relevant for the United States.

Energy resource endowments. The most important difference in energy resource endowments between the United States and China is China’s current lack of low-cost natural gas reserves, which has several implications. It means that the shift from primary coal to natural gas use in industry, buildings, and electricity that took place in the United States throughout the 20th century may be a less attractive strategy for improving air quality and reducing CO2 emissions in China. Additionally, it may mean that strategies to “frm” renewable energy in China’s electricity sector will be diferent than in the United States, where natural gas generation is often assumed to provide a reliable, backup (low utilization) energy resource even in 2050.14 Infrastructure age and growth. From the perspective of long-lived infrastructure, such as power plants, distribution networks, roads, factories, and buildings, China is a much younger country than the United States. For instance, the average age of coal-fred power plants in the United States is about 45 years, whereas in China it is around 15 years.15 Additionally, China’s infrastructure is expected to continue to expand more rapidly than in the United States over the next 10 to 20 years.