【英文】国际政治研究所报告：疫情后的中国：经济复苏与对世界的挑战（185页）

英文研究报告 2021年07月13日 08:36 管理员

The Chinese recovery could be seen across most economic indicators. And, importantly for the Chinese government, unemployment fell as people went back to work. But the recovery was unbalanced and looked more like China’s old growth model. Investment and exports were strongly outpacing domestic consumption. Market-driven domestic consumption was expanding at a sluggish pace before the pandemic and, as China came out of lockdown, it recovered at a much slower pace than the supply side. But the stimulus package saved output. Te package had allowed businesses to keep producing, and cheap credit combined with many new government infrastructure projects meant construction was booming. Tanks to the huge amount of liquidity made available by the government, fnancial markets also had a particularly strong year.

The government had engineered a stimulus driven demand to absorb the huge supply needed to keep output growing.Strongly afected by the lockdown, consumption recovered slowly. Retail sales, a proxy for overall consumption, contracted by 3.9% in 2020, far below GDP growth. Te fall was likely due to changed preferences, not because of less disposable income. In fact, average disposable income grew by 3.5% in 2020. Uncertainty about the future, combined with a strongly performing fnancial market with high returns, likely caused Chinese people to invest or simply save a larger share of their income than in previous years. But even though domestic demand has recovered at a relatively slower pace it is in recovery and looks set to continue picking up.