【英文】中国的对外投资欲望和对发展中国家的影响（92页）

英文研究报告 2021年08月10日 07:24 管理员

However, it is worth noting that contributions to growth for the fourth quarter were more evenly distributed between consumption and investment compared to earlier in the year, signalling a potential opening to shift back to structural reforms. Of the 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, final consumption expenditure contributed 2.57 percentage points, gross capital formation contributed 2.49 percentage points, and net exports of goods and 1 Some examples include reforms to rebalance the economy towards more consumption- and service sectordriven growth, opening up the financial sector, strengthening bank transparency and governance, developing capital markets and reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs). services contributed 1.44 percentage points.

In contrast, gross capital formation contributed 4.95 percentage points to growth in the second quarter, offsetting the 2.35 percentage points subtracted from growth due to lacklustre final consumption (See Figure 1). With contributions to growth becoming more evenly distributed, the government can potentially focus on resuming structural reforms1 and abandon the bid to stimulate growth through excessive capital formation.Record economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 exemplifies this positive distortion due to base effects. GDP increased 18.3% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2021, the highest growth rate posted since quarterly national accounts were first recorded. However, this was largely due to the low base as the economy contracted 6.8% over the same period in 2020 due to the pandemicinduced lockdown. Growth in final consumption contributed 11.6 percentage points, but this was also the sector most affected by the pandemic in 2020. Regardless, this affirms China’s recovery path and should signal that the target of above-6% growth for 2021 is well within reach.