【英文】兰德报告：威慑中国的太空战略（71页）

英文研究报告 2021年08月13日 07:01 管理员

China has set out ambitious goals in space. Perceiving space as a domain of strategic importance, it is seeking dominance there. According to primary source documents, the United States is perceived as being an obstacle to these goals, and because of this, China is incentivized to develop and deploy capabilities that could interfere with space-based capabilities of the United States. For this reason, the United States is particularly interested in deterring China in space. While we can rely on the principles of deterrence strategy outlined in classical deterrence theory, a new strategy for space needs to be tailored to the specific context of the space domain and particular U.S. objectives and perceptions of China. Tailoring deterrence for China in space requires a consideration of both the space domain’s unique characteristics and China’s ambitions in this domain.

Tailored deterrence in space requires a shift from some of the ideas that shaped strategies for classical deterrence during the Cold War, particularly because the United States is moving from deterrence of a particular weapon to deterrence in a domain. A deterrence strategy for the space domain needs to shift from a focus on the use of nuclear weapons to targeting a wide variety of behaviors that could interfere with operations in this domain. Further, operations in the space domain may rely on capabilities outside of the space domain and thereby expand the boundaries of a space deterrence strategy across different domains. A successful deterrence strategy tailored to China requires an understanding of Beijing’s own objectives and its ability to shape perceived gains from interfering with United States and allied space-based capabilities.